Elon's UK Meltdown: Can Tesla Survive Musk's Political Circus?

Tesla's facing a serious problem in the UK, and it's not just about product cycles or supply chain hiccups. October 2025 EV registrations plummeted to 511 units, a stark contrast to 971 in October 2024 and a much larger 2,677 the year before. That's not a dip; it's a dive. While the overall European market has been soft for Tesla (sales struggling for two years), the UK was supposed to be a relative stronghold. Now, it's looking like Germany 2.0. The question is, why?

The Musk Factor: A Quantifiable Drag?

The obvious culprit, and the one being pointed at most directly, is Elon Musk's increasingly vocal and controversial commentary on UK politics. He's been accused of stoking division with inflammatory statements on immigration and crime. One particular tweet, declaring "Civil war is inevitable," seems to have really set things off, driving his "unfavorability rating" to a whopping 80% in the country. But can we actually quantify the impact of Musk's rhetoric on Tesla sales? It seems like Elon Musk stoking a civil war in England isn’t good for Tesla’s sales there

It's tricky, but let's try. Tesla has over 50 stores in the UK. With those 511 vehicles delivered in October, that averages to roughly 10 cars per location. That is abysmal. You would think that with that level of presence that number would be significantly higher.

Here's where the analysis gets dicey, and I feel the need to add a parenthetical clarification (a common problem with correlation vs. causation). We can't definitively say Musk's comments caused the sales drop. There could be other factors at play: increased competition, a general economic downturn, or even just a bad batch of reviews for a specific model. But the timing is certainly suggestive. The sales dip coincides almost exactly with the peak of the public backlash against Musk's statements.

What is interesting is that BYD is now expected to outsell Tesla in the UK for the entirety of 2025. That is kind of a big deal considering Tesla has had a presence in the market much longer.

The Trillion-Dollar Gamble (or Just a Mirage?)

Meanwhile, Tesla shareholders are about to vote on a compensation package for Musk that could make him the world's first trillionaire. The deal hinges on Tesla reaching an $8.5 trillion market cap within the next ten years. That requires a 466% increase from today's stock price. Even Musk acknowledges that he may "pursue other interests" should it be denied.

I've looked at hundreds of these types of compensation packages and this one is unusual. It's a massive bet on Musk's vision, specifically the shift from just selling EVs to selling self-driving cars, robotaxis, and humanoid robots. These products are still largely vaporware.

Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, points out that if Musk hits the trillion-dollar mark over ten years, that's $275 million per day. That is a staggering amount, and it raises the question of whether any single individual's contribution is truly worth that much, regardless of how innovative they are.

Of course, Musk frames it differently. He argues he needs greater voting control to prevent "corporate terrorists" (his words for advisory firms like Glass Lewis and ISS, who are recommending against the pay package) from derailing his vision. It's a classic Muskian narrative: him against the world, fighting for the future.

But what if that vision is fundamentally flawed? What if the market for robotaxis never materializes? What if humanoid robots remain a niche product? Then, shareholders are stuck with a diluted stake and a CEO who may have already moved on to his next obsession.

Reality Distortion Field vs. Reality Check

The dichotomy here is stark. On one hand, you have the true believers, like Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who see Musk as "the key asset for Tesla" and believe he's essential to leading the company into its autonomous future. On the other hand, you have critics like Gerber, who question the sheer scale of the proposed compensation and the underlying assumptions about Tesla's future growth.

I think that the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Musk is undoubtedly a visionary, and Tesla has achieved remarkable things under his leadership. But his political pronouncements and increasingly erratic behavior are demonstrably impacting the brand, at least in certain markets. And the trillion-dollar compensation package feels less like a reward for past performance and more like a speculative bet on a future that may never arrive.

The question isn't whether Musk can lead Tesla to an $8.5 trillion market cap. The question is whether he should. And whether his personal brand is now so intertwined with Tesla's that it's actively eroding shareholder value.

A Billionaire's Ego vs. Shareholder Value